Posted by
Andy Zarowny on Sunday, November 09, 2008 9:33:41 PM
Barack Obama has been the
President-elect since Tues-
day night, and already, we
are beginning to get a taste
of what to expect from him.
His selection for Chief of
Staff, Rahm Emanual, shows
he wants a well-disciplined,
tight organization. Emanual
is also hardly a sign of any
bipartisan approach to the
way Obama will govern. His
choice also sends a signal
to the Democratic leaders on
Capitol Hill to 'watch their
step'.
Another major sign of what
is coming can be found on
the transition team website,
http://change.gov. There is
a long laundry list of the pro-
grams and new policies that
the Obama Administration will
be pushing, most likely in the
first months. A new stimulus
package (which Obama would
rather Bush initiate), mortgage
relief, credit card relief, jobs
programs, student subsidies,
etc., the list goes on and on.
Finally, Obama gave his first
press conference on Friday.
As he did before in previous
'pressers', it was late and short.
He only answered a few ques-
tions, including on silly things
like what puppy he'll buy for
his children. Obama even took
the time to levy a cheap shot
at Nancy Reagan about com-
muning with the dead, despite
the fact that it was Hillary who
talked about having séances
for Eleanor Roosevelt. The
only question asked of sub-
stance, concerning tax rates
for the wealthy, Obama glided
by without an answer. But his
opening remarks were enough
to indicate that the budget defi-
cit would be blown sky-high.
Already, this year’s deficit will
easily exceed a Trillion dollars!
Adding up all the current bail-
outs, plus potential new ones
for the auto industry, some 35
states and dozens of cities, all
clamoring for cash, on top of
the estimated $850 Billion for
Obama’s new programs, who
knows where next year’s defi-
cit will come in at? $2 Trillion?
With all this new money being
pumped into the system, one
wonders the impact it will have
on the U.S. dollar? Obama
stated Friday he wants a strong
dollar. Oh really? How will he
pull that off and still pay for
everything? Some analysts
predict the dollar may collapse
by next summer. Some even
say before the end of this year!
The implications of a dollar col-
lapse are serious. One may
wonder why it is not currently?
Indeed, the dollar has actually
strengthened the past few
weeks, despite the financial
meltdown. The reasons why
are simple. First, banks and
other companies are hoarding
cash. It is not circulating, yet.
Much of the money allocated
from the bailouts is being held
on to by the large investment
banks. The top nine are esti-
mated to be sitting on over
$400 Billion worth of cash right
now. The second major rea-
son why the dollar is staying
strong, for the moment, is that
other world currencies are get-
ting hit hard, too. The crisis is
effecting Europe and Asia in
harsh, but different ways.
Another major reason is that
up until October, consumer
confidence in the U.S. was still
reasonably strong. Retail sales
were still going well, and since
most of what U.S. consumers
buy is from overseas, a big
trade imbalance is actually a
good thing for the dollar. But
that may no longer be the case
in the upcoming months. We
are already seeing the signs of
a slow down in retail sales, as
well as the sharp drop in oil
prices. Consumers are cutting
back.
Starting last summer, Asia, and
primarily China, had begun a
policy of diversifying it’s cash
reserves away from Yankee
dollars. In 2007, it dumped
some $300 Billion. By July of
this year, over $1.2 Trillion
was used to buy non-dollar
holdings, especially gold.
India is leading the way in
gold purchasing, more than
1300 tons this year! With
20% of the world’s popula-
tion, India now has nearly
20% of all the mined gold,
making them #1 in gold
reserves, over 25,000 tons
of the precious metal! The
United States, in comparison,
has roughly 14,000 tons.
When people speak of a col-
lapse of the dollar, the classic
definition is a depreciation of
about 20% in a single year.
This does not mean that our
rate of inflation will be 20%
But it would not be pretty.
For example, when the Peso
collapsed in 1995, by about
50%, Mexico’s rate of infla-
tion hit about 35%. Some
analysts are predicting, based
on the amounts of new cash
being pumped into the system,
that by next summer, the U.S.
dollar could fall as much as
40% in current value.
The implications of such an
event are the following;
1) Prices go up, consump-
tion declines. Higher unem-
ployment dues to less goods
and services being used.
2) The nation’s debt load
is financed by short-term
T-bills, mainly bought by
overseas trading partners,
like China and Saudi Arabia.
With less consumption in
the U.S., there will be less
purchasing of our debt from
overseas. This will force our
governments (Federal, state
and local) to reduce services
and raise taxes.
During the Great Depression,
the economy declined but the
dollar actually remained rela-
tively strong. It was still backed
by gold, plus the Federal debt
was low enough where FDR
could get away with running
the printing presses. Neither
is the case today.
Obama and the Democrats in
Congress will be gambling
come 2009. They may believe
that by pumping enough cash
into the system quickly, they
can get consumers spending
and the game floating long
enough for confidence in both
domestic and foreign investors
to buy more debt. But given
the trends of the past year and
a half, that seems very unlikely.
The other chance of hope is
that at next year’s G8 meeting
in Italy, a serious discussion
on reforming the world’s
currency systems will take
place. A number of Euro-
pean finance ministers are
already calling for the G8
meeting to be a Bretton Woods
Part 2. It was at the 1944
Bretton Woods meeting where
our current financial system
was devised. There are many
who feel it is high-time to no
longer tie the dollar to the
world’s currencies, or to oil.
This would be bad for the
United States, initially, but
would have the effect of de-
fining a bottom.
Other economists are also
talking more openly about a
revaluation of currency and
the current debt load. This
would be a very dramatic
event. Even a modest ad-
justment in central bank
policy on how interest rates
are set would have major
implications. Unfortunately,
in the short-term, this means
that those who thought that
markets may begin to re-
bound after the elections may
have to wait until after the
July, 2009 meeting until some
certainty is restored.