Posted by
Andy Zarowny on Tuesday, March 17, 2009 10:45:57 PM
If you haven't heard that insur-
ance giant, AIG, has paid out
some $165 Million dollars in
bonuses to some 400 execs,
then you must be in a coma.
All the media is in a stir as out-
raged Congressmen and pun-
dits comment. How could a
company which U.S. taxpayers
bailed out, to the tune of about
$170 BILLION dollars do such
a thing?
Of course, this is the same
bunch that after they got $85
Billion from the government,
did a spa weekend for $440,000
and sent a couple
execs to England for a holiday
at a cost of $66,000. Well,
the gross were in season
don't ya know?
The outrage is silly, as the
same Congressmen who are
now complaining were the
ones who gave AIG the cash
with few strings attached. In
fact, it was Senator Chris Dodd
of CT who got an amendment
to permit bonus payments
added to the TARP law. BTW,
Dodd had received some
$103,100 in campaign contri-
butions from AIG execs in
2008's election cycle. Nice,
huh? Talk about getting a
return on your investment!
Some now question whether
we should have bailed out
AIG in the first place. Why
did we? Let us set the 'way-
back' machine to Oct '07,
and look at our old friend,
the Credit Default Swap (CDS).
A CDS is basically a bet made
by two parties on whether or
not a company will default on
their bonds. Companies sell
bonds all the time to raise
needed capital, usually paying
a much higher interest rate
than government issued bonds.
This is all fine and well *IF*
the company selling the bonds
has a good track record on
paying off bonds and happens
to also be making money.
Let us say that you run a
mutual fund and want a
position in a certain company,
but their stock is kind of high.
So you buy some stock and
you then buy some bonds
from that company. Such
companies will put up their
assets as security for their
bonds, often in the company's
own holdings of their stock.
Any investment involves a
certain amount of 'RISK'.
Maybe the company is part
of a 'soft market'. So, you buy
some bonds, but to play it
safe, you acquire a CDS from
a another firm, most likely a
hedge fund OR an insurance
company, like AIG. The CDS
itself now also becomes part
of your fund's portfolio.
The CDS market exploded
in the late '90s like many
other exotic investment in-
struments, such as derivatives.
All of these are essentially
'side-bets'. In 2000, the CDS
market was a mere $900
Billion dollars world-wide. By
January 2007, it was $50
Trillion!
One of the more popular types
of CDS were those covering
potential defaults of mortgages,
bundled into 'tranches' and
traded worldwide. AIG's posi-
tion on mortgage related CDS
was is estimated at about
$75 Billion. By June of 2008,
the actual value of the tranches
dropped to about $60 Billion
thanks to the housing bubble.
AIG's overall position in CDS
of all types is estimated at
around $300 Billion, mostly
to Asian and European banks
and investment groups.
So, this explains why after we
taxpayers have given AIG
$170 Billion dollars, they are
still struggling and basically
broke. AIG is a sieve for cash,
with them having to pay off
many others who bought these
exotic instruments. This also
leads us to why we bailed them
out in the first place.
As the housing bubble was
straining the credit market, the
value of all CDS assets was
declining. The collapse of
Lehman Brothers is the per-
fect example. When former
Treasury Secretary, Hank
Paulson, auctioned off their
CDS paper, the market only
paid about 9 cents on a dollar
for them. In other words,
CDS is not a good bet for the
one issuing it.
It's also not a good asset to
hold or trade. During better
times, CDS paper was traded
heavily. It could easily move
through several sets of owners
on the same day. AIG's CDS
exposure being at $300 Billion
meant that multiple entities
were also at risk whether they
still or even had held them at
some point. $300 Billion in
bad CDS paper could easily
translate quickly into $3
Trillion dollars of lost wealth
on the accounts of many
investment firms.
The ones who would suffer
the most would be those
pension funds and other
publicly held groups that de-
pended on their cache of
CDS to firm up their account-
ing books. Had AIG been
allowed to collapse like
Lehman, the ripple effect
would have crashed many
more companies around
the world, plus here at
home in the U.S.A..
I suspect that at some time
in late August or so, Paulson
and Fed Chairman Ben
Bernanke must have figured
that the housing/credit crunch
could be fixed quickly with a
massive infusion of cash.
But after the Lehman auction,
their view on the situation
changed fundamentally. They
were now staring into an abyss
of a hyper-leveraged monetary
crisis. Shoveling cash into
the abyss in hopes of restoring
confidence seems to be their
only solution.
And confidence is the key to
the whole game, as none of
these investment instruments,
not even our U.S. dollar, has
any real value! The financial
house of cards has been build-
ing since Dec 24th, 1913, when
Congress abdicated it's power
to print money to the private
bank that is the Federal Re-
serve. We now live in a world
who's total GDP is about
$60 Trillion dollars, and who's
holdings in actual, physical
assets is around double that.
But the overwhelming majority
of 'wealth' is focused in the
whole range of exotic assets,
such as CDS and derivatives.
Estimates, and that's about
all we can get are estimates
since these investments are
largely unregulated and de-
finitely over-valued, is any-
where between $400 Trillion
to an astounding Quadrillion
dollars!!! We're barely able
to comprehend a Trillion dol-
lars, let alone a Quadrillion.
This is the problem we face
now. Investors do not like
uncertainty, although all
investments have risk. And
it's made worse by the fact
that nobody really knows
just how much digital wealth
there truly is being played
with in the world. The only
plan available for now is to
keep people playing. So
when AIG or Fannie Mae
or somebody else comes to
Washington with their hat
in their hand, the odds are
they'll get bailed out.
The danger, of course, is
that at some point, the
music stops, and the all
of that cash we've been
shoveling comes back in
the form of inflation, and
higher taxes. This latest
financial crisis of the past
few months may seem
like a picnic compared to
the Great Day of Reckoning
ahead!